JPM: Итоги презентации менеджмента ВТБ24 для аналитиков

Команда ВТБ во главе с Екатериной Петелиной провела презентацию для аналитиков в МСК и Лондоне.
Говоря о (3Y трехлетний наверное), который должен быть представлен в 4 квартале 2013. Несмотря на агрессивные планы Банка Лето, ВТБ 24 сохранит внимание на сегменте клиентов с высокими/средними доходами — средний класс.
Цели включают увеличение объема кредитов в 2,8 раз. ROE — 25%. Доходы к 2016 100 млрд. рублей.

 Retail market focus remains on the affluent segment, although in terms of branches most growth should be in the mass-market where VTB operates under a new format, Leto. Mass market total clients to grow 50% by 2016; however, clients in affluent/mass affluent segments should more than double according to the plan, as incomes rise. Differentiation is an important element of marketing so growth should be achieved at the expense of smaller players. VTB targets retail loans to grow 2.8x from RUB1 trn in 2012.
 Branches: Total retail branches should increase to 2500 (by 1000 for Leto) from ~1300 in 2012. The estimated breakeven for VTB24 is 2.5Y (heavy format) compared to 1Y-8M for Leto (light format).
 Rates. Regulatory pressure is focused on monoliners with 25%+ rates, and does not affect VTB24. In deposits, regulatory pressure is actually positive VTB (and Sberbank) at the expense of monoliners. A moderate decrease in NIM from the 8% level should be expected. Margins in mass market are higher, but profitability is also affected by costs and risks; thus for Leto low costs are key. The retail unit should have C/I in the low 40s by 2016.
 Asset quality. VTB 24 has a very different model compared to monoliners. Mortgages and autoloans (over 1/3 of the total) are secured with collateral, while cash loans are split as 30% to salary accounts, 30% to corporate program clients, 40% open market clients. This should be a resilient model and no deterioration of asset quality is seen for 2013. Each bank within the group runs its own risks scoring models but best practices and procurement are shared.
 Financial targets. VTB24 should sustain high growth rates driven by average ticket, number of clients, and branch network increases. The unit plans to have 20 mn active retail clients and over 250k SMEs with market share of loans reaching 18.5% and 8.8% respectively. Management expects the unit to generate around RUB100 bn by 2016 which compares to the target for the whole group in 2013 while keeping ROE>25%.
 Our take: VTB24 appears on track to deliver strong growth while scoring high in profitability. We believe that delivering on targets should warrant generous multiples; thus applying P/E of 10x on the indicated earnings of ~$3 bn would imply total valuation of $30 bn for the retail unit alone. This represents >50% upside to VTB’s total current market cap of $19 bn.