По мнению аналитиков JPM, выход отчета хуже консенсуса оказывает негативное влияние на акции в течение 2-5 дней, но зато потом все хорошо получается. В целом, рекомендуют «buy the dips», до конца года года рассчитывают увидеть 1430 по S&P500.
13 января, в пятницу, в 16:00 мск корпоративную отчетность за IV квартал 2011 года представит второй по капитализации банк США – JP Morgan. Напомним, что на следующей неделе предстоят релизы отчетностей по абсолютному большинству американских банков.
Putin talks to nation: no great change from earlier conversations
On Thursday 15 December, Prime-Minister Vladimir Putin held his annual televised Q&A session. The show was pre-scheduled beforehand, but it was interesting to see how Putin would respond to the recent rise in nationwide public protests. We characterize this televised Q&A session as: defending this month’s parliamentary election results, emphasizing that Russia is being threatened by external enemies, criticizing the opposition, and making selected political concessions. There were a surprisingly small number of new social spending commitments. Putin’s offensive stance may increase number of protesters.
There were a few biting comments made by PM Putin, which are likely to spark more anger and in the end attract more people to the street on December 24: from stating that students were paid to come to anti-government protests and making a crude comment about protesters symbol—the white ribbon—to repeating the thesis that the protest movement is promoted from abroad. The official line on the election outcome maintained.
It was sad that parliamentary elections have reflected the real balance of power in the country, while any allegations of fraud must be brought to courts. The recent protests were compared to Orange Revolution in Ukraine, opposition leaders were warned against destabilization of society in Russia. Yet a few political concessions seem to be in the making.
First, Putin promised to consider modifying the procedure of appointing regional governors, partially reversing his previous decision to cancel regional elections. The new procedure would include candidates being nominated by parties, which made it into regional parliament, “filtering” of candidates by the president and then ballot voting by the population on the selected candidates. The possibility of direct elections of members of the upper chamber of the parliament was also voiced. Second, Putin promised to consider liberalizing legislation on political parties so that smaller parties could register. Third, he suggested placing web-cameras in all poll-stations by March elections to reduce the risk of fraud. Continuity and stability is the strategy for the next presidential term.
PM Putin’s answers to the questions about his goals / mission for the second term can be boiled down to his older theses about the importance of maintaining stability and continuing with developing the social sphere and with modernization. Achievements of the last twelve years were listed—the elimination of poverty, real wage and GDP growth, decline in inflation and in unemployment, decline in foreign debt and increase in foreign reserves, suppression of separatism and terrorism, etc.—with a subtle hint that it will be impossible to hold on to these achievements without him in power. However, no new substantial objectives for the next six years were offered. Supporters are likely to treat the stability thesis positively, while opposition is likely to firm in the conclusion about the forthcoming stagnation (“zastoi”). Among other relevant statements:
Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin remains a member of Putin’s team and is to be counted upon in the future;
Further economic integration with Belarus and Kazakhstan is to be continued, possibly with a common currency;
Mikhail Prokhorov will be a strong competitor on elections (which we interpret as that Putin doesn’t mind Prokhorov to be registered as a presidential candidate);
United Russia Party score is good enough for Medvedev to be prime-minister;
Luxury tax may be imposed in 2013;
Although a privatization during 1990-s was not fair, it would be counterproductive to reverse it and seize property from oligarchs.
Решил воспользоваться выходом глобальных обзоров и объединить то, что инвестбанки пишут о России.
