SBER — weekly

В первом случае идет формирование волны (С) of [Y] of b of (y) в рамках продолжения большого отскока. В волне (С) сформировано 3 внутренние субволны, идет внутренняя коррекция.

Снижение целевой цены по Газпрому от CS

Хочу обратить внимание на бумаги Газпрома.

Бумага стояла почти весь прошлый год и сейчас проходит важный психологический уровень 200 р. за бумагу. Если ничего экстраординарного не произойдёт, то я думаю, что есть шанс наконец-то вырваться и пойти на 210-220 р. Технически мне видится цель 250-255 р.

Что-то подсказывает, что всё же ралли в этом году состоится и цель 1700 по ММВБ и 1750 по РТС вполне реальны…
Все говорили, что Газпром будет расти… Поздравления всем, кто купил…

Однако, у меня идеи в несколько другим эмитентам:
1. Транснефть. Драйвер — включение в индекс MSCI. Крупные фонды начали входить и будут продолжать входить, пока не достигнут целевых показателей баланса по портфелю.

Gazprom’s (GAZP) 1Q10 IFRS results: strong performance. POSITIVE
Higher gas sales volumes and domestic prices supported the top-line. Yesterday, Gazprom reported 1Q10 IFRS results that surpassed the market expectations on the EBITDA and net income lines. The revenue at $32.3 bn (up by 31% y-o-y) was 5% above the market consensus. The revenue from gas sales rose by 24% y-o-y (17% q-o-q) to $24 bn, driven primarily by higher volumes and domestic price. In regards to volumes, Gazprom’s gas exports to Europe increased by 37% y-o-y to 43 bcm, to the CIS – by 75% to 17 bcm and domestic sales – by 10% to 103 bcm. In 1Q10, Gazprom’s realized gas price from exports to Europe showed negative y-o-y dynamic, reflecting more favorable oil price environment in 2008: in 2Q08-4Q08 average Urals price was $95/bbl vs. $67/bbl in 2Q09-4Q09. The average realized gas price from exports to Europe was down by 26% y-o-y at $287/mcm and to the CIS – down by 14% y-o-y at $233/mcm in 1Q10. Meanwhile, average realized domestic gas price was on the rise (not linked directly to the oil price): up by 53% y-o-y at $76/mcm. As compared to 4Q09, there was a 10% decline in the realized European gas price, a 10% increase in the CIS price, and domestic price remained unchanged.
Strong EBITDA due to lower third-party purchases. The EBITDA at $14.5 bn (up by 70% y-o-y) and net income at $10.9 bn (more than three-fold increase y-o-y) surpassed the market consensus by 9%. The main reason for strong profitability was lower value of Gazprom’s third-party purchases of gas, oil and oil products (down by 34% y-o-y at $4.6 bn). EBITDA margin rose from 35% in 1Q09 (37% in 4Q09) to 45% in 1Q10. Among the major cost items, staff costs, transportation expenses and “other” costs increased tangibly – up by roughly 60%, 40% and 30% y-o-y to $2.8 bn, $2.6 bn and $2.1 bn, respectively. According to Gazprom, the increase in transportation expenses is partially attributable to higher charges for transit via Ukrainian territory. In 1Q10, total capex was up by roughly 40% y-o-y at $6.3 bn: investments increased in all the segments except for distribution and gas storage. The most notable growth in capex was in the transportation segment (up by roughly 30% y-o-y). In regards to leverage, Gazprom’s net debt decreased from $47 bn as of YE2009 to $33 bn as of 1Q10 and, thus, 2010E (consensus) net debt to EBITDA is now as low as 0.7.
Positive, strong financials should support the performance. In our view, Gazprom’s strong 1Q10 results should support performance of the stock. Prior to that, the market consensus was quite conservative (2010E EBITDA of $45 bn and net income of $28 bn) and the 1Q10 results may trigger an upward revision of the financial forecasts for Gazporm. On 2010E P/E Gazprom is trading at roughly 70% discount to the international peers (4.3 vs. international peers’ average of 13.5) – a very attractive level. The recovery in gas production this year (in January-August, Gazprom’s gas output increased by 16% y-o-y) and favorable domestic gas prices (regulated gas tariff for industrial consumers set at $76/mcm for 2010) should support the company’s financials. European export volumes are unlikely to increase: Gazprom forecasts its non-CIS gas sales to remain unchanged at 140 bcm this year.

Gazprom’s (GAZP) 1Q10 IFRS results: strong performance. POSITIVE

MMVB (GAZP) — потенциал акции и ближайшие перспективы