| 21:00 | BRUS | 1150 | 3 |
Societe Generale: Commodity Weekly, 19.04.2011
/uploads/images/
Еженедельное освещение товарных рынков от Societe Generale по состоянию на 19.04.2011.
Indices
The S&P GSCI ER index lost 2.2% wow. Year-to-date performance now stands at +12.6% (+16.1% on a spot basis). Basically, the index was up until Friday. Then, China hiked the Risk Reserve Ratio during the weekend and speculation over debt restructuring by Greece hit markets on Monday morning. This speculation was, of course, denied, but S&P subsequently revised the US sovereign credit rating outlook to negative, putting a one-third probability on a cut of this credit rating in the next two years. This was too much for commodities. They stalled on Monday, Gold being the exception thanks to its safe-haven status. However, these dips represent buying opportunities for some commodities that still have strong fundamentals.
Brent crude remained near the top of our forecast price range of $110-125/bbl
On Libya, some tensions within NATO emerged regarding how aggressive military action should be. However, NATO later tried to paper over these differences, publishing a statement saying it was united in forcing Libyan government troops to stop attacking civilians, with the ultimate aim to force Gaddafi to relinquish power. Meanwhile on the ground, the war in the key cities intensified. Amidst ongoing uncertainty about the outcome of the conflict, the oil market continues to price in an extended supply disruption in Libya.
Gold; GFMS survey supports our market view
In our most recent Quarterly Commodities Review we recommended a long gold position on the expectation of persistently low interest rates in the United States, the implied inflationary expectations and the likely further weakening of the dollar. The latest GFMS “Gold Survey 2011”, and the inferences to be drawn for the outlook for this year, reflects this view.
Upside limited for carbon — Euro sovereign debt crisis and nuclear debate pushing in opposite directions
Carbon prices moved along our expectations last week. Until mid-week, unsupportive energy prices with collapsing gas and power prices pushed carbon prices down. The UK grid is facing record regasification and medium term storages are now at their highest level for this period. With summer round the corner, gas prices are decreasing (NBP month ahead has moved from £p64 /th to £p59 /th since early April). On Wednesday technicals took over and carbon prices rebounded on strong supports (€16.5 /t for Dec11 EUA). This rebound has also been led by several statements on European nuclear debate supporting higher power prices and directly stronger carbon prices.
Indices
The S&P GSCI ER index lost 2.2% wow. Year-to-date performance now stands at +12.6% (+16.1% on a spot basis). Basically, the index was up until Friday. Then, China hiked the Risk Reserve Ratio during the weekend and speculation over debt restructuring by Greece hit markets on Monday morning. This speculation was, of course, denied, but S&P subsequently revised the US sovereign credit rating outlook to negative, putting a one-third probability on a cut of this credit rating in the next two years. This was too much for commodities. They stalled on Monday, Gold being the exception thanks to its safe-haven status. However, these dips represent buying opportunities for some commodities that still have strong fundamentals.
Brent crude remained near the top of our forecast price range of $110-125/bbl
On Libya, some tensions within NATO emerged regarding how aggressive military action should be. However, NATO later tried to paper over these differences, publishing a statement saying it was united in forcing Libyan government troops to stop attacking civilians, with the ultimate aim to force Gaddafi to relinquish power. Meanwhile on the ground, the war in the key cities intensified. Amidst ongoing uncertainty about the outcome of the conflict, the oil market continues to price in an extended supply disruption in Libya.
Gold; GFMS survey supports our market view
In our most recent Quarterly Commodities Review we recommended a long gold position on the expectation of persistently low interest rates in the United States, the implied inflationary expectations and the likely further weakening of the dollar. The latest GFMS “Gold Survey 2011”, and the inferences to be drawn for the outlook for this year, reflects this view.
Upside limited for carbon — Euro sovereign debt crisis and nuclear debate pushing in opposite directions
Carbon prices moved along our expectations last week. Until mid-week, unsupportive energy prices with collapsing gas and power prices pushed carbon prices down. The UK grid is facing record regasification and medium term storages are now at their highest level for this period. With summer round the corner, gas prices are decreasing (NBP month ahead has moved from £p64 /th to £p59 /th since early April). On Wednesday technicals took over and carbon prices rebounded on strong supports (€16.5 /t for Dec11 EUA). This rebound has also been led by several statements on European nuclear debate supporting higher power prices and directly stronger carbon prices.
Код для вставки в блог
20 апреля 2011, 09:35