Тезисы выступления Драги на конференции

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*SPANISH 10-YR YIELD DROPS BELOW 7% AFTER DRAGHI PLEDGES ACTION

Комментарий от Сити
Draghi Willing To Do “Whatever it Takes to Preserve the Euro”
 In a speech in London ECB President Mario Draghi said that “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” He added that he thinks that the “euro is irreversible” but did not want to give an estimate for chance of a country leaving the euro area. In the view of Mr. Draghi «the euro area is much, much stronger than people acknowledge today.» He was also very сomplementary regarding the last EU summit by saying it “was a real success because for the first time in many years the leaders… said the way out of the crisis is to have more Europe rather than less Europe."
 In his speech Mr. Draghi stressed that the mandate of the ECB is price stability and that the ECB does not want to supplement actions that can be taken by governments. However, he also made the point that if sovereign risk premia were to hamper the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, they would “come within our mandate”. He added that the ECB has to “cope with the financial fragmentation, address these issues.” Note, that this was the main argument for introducing the SMP in May 2010 and re-activating the facility in August 2011.
 With respect to banking supervision, Mr. Draghi said that it is important to have a central authority that can question any euro area banking decision.
 Comment: After saying that the ECB has “no taboos” in respect of taking measures to maintain price stability, Mr. Draghi is now also outspoken in respect of taking unconventional measures to preserve the euro. Mr. Draghi’s comments suggest that the ECB is less opposed to supporting sovereign bond markets again either indirectly through multi-year LTROs or directly through the use of the SMP.
However, in our view, such action is only likely to be taken after governments have taken action first, i.e. by activating the bond market support facility for Spain and Italy. Mr. Draghi did not touch on recent comments by Austrian Governor Ewald Nowotny regarding the ability of the ECB to provide funding to the ESM. In that respect, the crucial question is if the direct funding of the ESM is seen as a form of the prohibited monetary financing or not. So far, the position of the ECB has been that ESM funding would be not within its mandate, but an article in Dutch newspaper Financieele Dagblad quotes sources today as saying that allowing the ESM to tap the ECB’s open market operations would comply with the ECB’s charter, because, as the European Investment Bank (EIB) which has access to ECB funding, the ESM would have the status of an international financial institution.

Комментарий от GS

Strong signal for ECB intervention from Draghi, though timing and instrument yet to be determined
Speaking at a conference today, ECB President Draghi pledged: “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." This statement from Draghi comes after an interview published in Le Monde last Friday (July 20) in which he said that “the euro is irrevocable”.
We have been of the view for a long time that the ECB is ultimately the only institution that can credibly backstop Italy and Spain should these countries no longer be able to refinance themselves in private markets. The existing bail-out funds are not large enough to cover both countries and any other form of debt mutualisation (Euro bonds, for example) that would provide relief for either Spain or Italy are not feasible any time soon.
Mr Draghi’s comments, in our view, signal very clearly the ECB’s determination to use the ECB’s balance sheet in one form or another to support the Euro. While we think that the ECB wants first to see a similar commitment from governments — and the use of the existing tools as signalled by his comments — before it springs into action, we would not rule out that some action will be taken at short notice in order to dent the sharp rise in Spanish and Italian yields.
As we wrote in last week’s European Economics Analyst, the ECB still has a broad range of non-standard measures it can use. A reactivation of the SMP would be one possibility to change, at least temporarily, market sentiment. But another 3-year LTRO would be another possible short-term reaction to the latest market moves. Both measures can be implemented rapidly and the chances of this happening have increased after Mr Draghi’s comments today. The reference of Mr Draghi to the malfunctioning monetary policy transmission mechanism could be seen as a preference for a re-activation of the SMP. However, it is noteworthy that a damaged transmission mechanism has been the justification for all non-standard measures the ECB has taken.
In any case, such measures would probably provide only short-term relief and a firmer commitment would be needed to have a lasting effect on peripheral bond markets. Some form of refinancing of the EFSF/ESM through the ECB would be a lasting solution, although there is some legal uncertainty about whether this is feasible.

CS — BREAKING NEWS: ECB – game changing Draghi comments — 26.7.12

Я вот не понимаю алармизма Драги совершенно. Слабый евро на руку всем странам Еврозоны. Может он там «честь» какую то углядел в котирах? ))
БОЯ счастлив был бы на его месте.

UBS — Mr. Draghi was stating a fact, not changing policy — 27.7.12

BAML — Euro Area Macro Viewpoint — 27.7.12 — What would it take to address the Euro crisis?

Bloomberg: Draghi Boxes Himself Into A Corner With Bond Signal: Euro Credit

CS — Draghi ready to act? — 27.7.12