ProСсылки. Credit Suisse: ежемесячные обзоры - 07-2011

Сценарии
— Our central scenario for the ongoing negotiations on the US debt ceiling is that we will see a rise in the ceiling by August 2nd, with the bulk of key decisions on fiscal tightening delayed until after the 2012 elections. We think there is a 50% chance of a ratings downgrade on US sovereign debt. This could happen even if the debt ceiling is raised. We doubt it will have much effect: Japan has a 1.1% yield and an AA- rating, many US Treasury funds do not have credit-rating limitations and national bank regulators would probably keep risk weightings for US sovereign debt at zero. Our fair value model suggests bond yields should be circa 3.5% — but then the equity risk premium would be a high 5.5% versus our fair value of 4.5% (i.e. equities would still be around 20% cheap).
We also explore alternatives to our central scenario:

Alternative scenario 1 – an extended period of no rise in the debt ceiling. As our economists point out, each month of no rise in the ceiling could easily take 0.5%-1% off GDP. In this case, equity markets would drop by 10%-15%, prompting Congress to find a solution and bond yields would fall to 2.75% (according to Credit Suisse fixed income team). Investors should focus on defensiveness and quality growth. The dollar falls.

Alternative scenario 2 – default. This is very unlikely, but if it occurs, GDP could fall 5%+ and equities by 30%. Purely focus on stocks with high FCF, low leverage (see page 6).

Кредит свисс планирует уволить 2000 своих сотрудников из-за падения прибыли на 52% в первом полугодии сего года по торговым операциям!

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=2059516441&startTime=3&endTime=383